On 28 December, militants attacked Monjane town, just 5 km from the facility, forcing the energy company to evacuate staff. The incident highlights the potential for further violent protests and unrest, amid increasing political polarisation. Travellers in coastal cities are at an increased risk of being targeted by militants at hotels and other venues frequented by foreigners. The risks posed by North Korea’s weapons programme are likely to persist in 2021. Email me. The militants now largely control key routes into Palma, giving them further opportunities to expand northwards and eastwards. Our Intelligence specialists provide corporate intelligence and geopolitical risk analysis for multinational corporations and governments worldwide. IE 11 is not supported. Cyber Tipping Point. While countries such as the United States and Germany will have new leadership in 2021, most of the world’s other leading actors will continue to be led by the same people that have overseen this rise in geopolitical risk levels, boding ill for the prospects for a lessening of geopolitical tensions around the world. The following is based on the panel session ‘Control Risks’ Geopolitical Keynotes for 2021’. The following is based on the panel session ‘Control Risks’ Geopolitical Keynotes for 2021’. London signed a trade deal with the EU on 24 December and ended its withdrawal period on 1 January. As we prepare to enter a new year, and leave behind a year that most people would like to forget, it is clear that the elevated levels of geopolitical risk that we have been facing in recent years will remain in place for the foreseeable future. Ian Bremmer releases top geopolitical risks for 2021. Thus, growing tensions between China and the US will increase the risk of miscalculation and drive bilateral relations to new lows. The overall security situation is likely to worsen throughout 2021. Analysis. As the world struggles to emerge from the Covid-19 crisis – which has arguably been the most economically disruptive event since World War II – domestic and international politics will see major transformations. Risk 1: 46*. 2021 will be a year of uneven vaccine rollouts and uneven recovery. The elections are likely to reignite grievances over living standards, public services, and corruption. RISK REPORT 2021. Meanwhile, Pyongyang has continued to advance its nuclear and missile capabilities. In response to the Capitol riots, Twitter banned over 70,000 accounts linked to the QAnon conspiracy theory and Facebook blocked Trump’s account until Biden’s inauguration. Read the latest analysis on geopolitical issues today, covering political, economic, military, commodities, energy security & environmental issues. China stocks retreated from a four-week high as trading resumes after a one-day pause for holiday. The insurgency poses a considerable risk to Mozambique’s ambition to become a major energy producer, with the Total-operated project likely to be delayed due to deteriorating security conditions around Palma. 1. However, the effectiveness of such efforts is likely to be limited, as groups such as QAnon and Proud Boys may just move to alternative platforms. States and organisations caught in this geopolitical battle will need to understand where the fault lines and key nuances in this competition lie to increase their own room for manoeuvre. The recently published 2021 Geostrategic Outlook presents analysis on the global political risk environment in 2021, with geopolitics of COVID-19 as the top risk. It is little surprise that, following one of the most chaotic years in recent history, geopolitical risk levels entering the year 2021 are dangerously high. While 2020 was the year COVID-19 took the world by storm, the pandemic’s medium- to long-term effects on the geopolitical environment will begin to crystalize in 2021. On 4 January, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps seized a South Korean vessel in the Persian Gulf before demanding that Seoul release USD 7 bn of funds currently frozen due to US sanctions. Fearful of Tehran’s ambitions, Israel will likely continue to disrupt any potential rapprochement between the US and Iran. MSNBC. As such, here are our predictions for the ten leading geopolitical risks facing the world in the year 2021: The US-Chinese Cold War: Relations between the world’s two superpowers have fallen to their lowest level in decades. Something is different in the geopolitical situation today. While there is an expectation that the incoming Biden Administration in Washington will attempt to alleviate tensions between the two giants, flashpoints such as Taiwan, Hong Kong and the … 21-01-2021. There is a risk of increased civil unrest in the year ahead following Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s agreement to a 9 November ceasefire with Azerbaijan over the Nagorno-Karabakh (NK) region. This 2-hour virtual event will discuss short and long-term political and geopolitical risks outlining how Covid-19 will exacerbate pre-existing domestic tensions in many countries, while accelerating the trend of deglobalisation and pushing the US and China towards a more confrontational path. The election went ahead and President Faustin-Archange Touadera was re-elected with 53.9 percent of the vote. Last year's report branded 2020 as a negative tipping point —globalization changing its trajectory towards a US-China economic … But given the various competing global and regional challenges, Pyongyang would have to carry out a major provocation to successfully employ those tactics this year. High-profile, high-impact attacks from Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS) and Jama’at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM) are likely to continue in 2021. PGI's Geopolitical Intelligence team have put together a list of some of the key risks for 2021. Ian Bremmer releases top geopolitical risks for 2021. The top geopolitical risks for 2021, according to Eurasia Group. In 2021, climate related geopolitical risks are most likely to accelerate along two trend lines: 1) regulatory or legislative changes aimed at fossil fuel intensive industries, and 2) extreme weather events that disrupt supply chains and upend infrastructure. Crude Oil Prices Choppy, Rising Geopolitical Risks to Spark Oil Volatility 2021-04-07 10:30:00 Justin McQueen , Analyst Crude Oil Price Analysis & News Look ahead to the geopolitical events that will shape your world in 2021. When he became president in 2018, Diaz-Canel promised to introduce reforms while maintaining the country’s communist system. Despite the development of vaccines, the COVID-19 pandemic will continue to have a profound impact on public health worldwide. Pashinyan is likely to shuffle government ministers to consolidate his support base. The Political Risk Outlook 2021 contains expert research and analysis from senior members of our Country Risk Intelligence team, exploring the key global issues and country-level risks impacting multinational companies and investors today. Political risks and violence returns to the top 10 of the Allianz Risk Barometer for the first time since 2018, reflecting the fact that civil unrest incidents such as protests and riots now challenge terrorism as the main political risk exposure for companies. The clashes between government forces and the rebel coalition brings the February 2019 Khartoum peace agreement back to square one. The key discussion topics of the event will be: … Opposition parties will likely exploit anti-government sentiment to gain support and organise protests. Militants expanded their geographical reach and operational capabilities in 2020, suggesting a prolonged conflict is likely this year. These grievances were previously highlighted when authorities stopped paying public sector wages due to an economic crisis caused by low oil prices and financial mismanagement. However, Biden’s domestic-focused, pro-multilateralism policy stance suggests that he is unlikely to take the same approach as the Trump administration. Though the agreement ensures that there will be no tariffs and quotas on trade in goods, independent bodies will monitor trade to ensure competition is fair, creating a notable regulatory burden. As geopolitical turbulence persists, these digital rights risks will force regulatory action in 2021. In 2020, several cities saw Sadrist militiamen raiding protest camps and shooting protesters. The UK’s trade deal with the EU will pose new regulatory challenges to UK trade. As a result, geopolitical risk levels entering 2021 are as high as they have been since any time over the past ten to fifteen years, a less-than-welcome development for a world that is struggling to overcome the dislocations caused by the Covid-19 pandemic. ... 2021 … The elections, and the economic fallout of COVID-19, are likely to exacerbate socioeconomic grievances and concerns about political corruption, increasing the risk of significant unrest. However, the rebel coalition may attempt to blockade Bangui, which would further undermine Touadera’s authority, increase food and resource insecurity, and bolster rebel group activity in areas outside of government control. 08-01-2021. The North Korean leader’s comments are likely an effort to put pressure on the incoming US administration of Joe Biden to engage with Pyongyang. Trade operations with the EU, as well as between Great Britain and Northern Ireland, will require more paperwork, which could overburden local businesses and damage commerce. As the year progresses, developed countries may struggle to meet vaccination timelines, while many developing countries could struggle to procure and administer enough vaccines due to insufficient financial resources and poor healthcare infrastructure. However, the pandemic has added another dimension to many of these flashpoints and has dramatically raised tensions in many parts of the world. The top geopolitical risks for 2021, according to Eurasia Group. President Sebastian Piñera responded by holding a referendum on whether to change the constitution, which was approved by voters. The 16th edition of the World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report analyses the risks from societal fractures—manifested through persistent and emerging risks to human health, rising unemployment, widening digital divides, youth disillusionment, and geopolitical fragmentation. no. The ceasefire resulted in Armenia ceding much of NK, including the region’s second largest city of Shusha, and surrounding districts to Azerbaijan. The 16th edition of the World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report analyses the risks from societal fractures—manifested through persistent and emerging risks to human health, rising unemployment, widening digital divides, youth disillusionment, and geopolitical fragmentation. His position as a strong advocate for allowing internet access in Cuba also suggests the country may embrace a more moderate direction. Agility in decision-making, operations and strategy will be crucial for managing the fallout from COVID-19 and associated political risks … That said, the challenges in relations between the two countries are structural and deeply rooted. 2021 will reinforce the notion that digital technologies are the main battleground for geopolitical dominance. Under the ceasefire terms, Yerevan will build a corridor from NK’s capital Stepankert to Armenia, and from the Nakhchivan region to Azerbaijan. Civil unrest in the south will continue to pose significant threats to the energy industries as protesters regularly attempt to block oil fields. 11 March 2021. MSNBC. Coronavirus vaccine diplomacy adds “a new weapon” to the arsenal of competing powers, and is likely to cause older geopolitical tensions to resurface, according to Marsh’s 2021 political risk … 6 April 2021. This year's report is available here. The ill-equipped Mozambican security forces are unlikely to be able to contain the militants without international assistance, which is highly unlikely in the foreseeable future. From ongoing COVID-19 challenges to election-related unrest across South America, these are the areas that our Analysts have identified as potentially having significant impact on the economy and business operations. ... 2021. Top Risks 2021. Eurasia Group’s annual forecast of the political risks that are most likely to play out over the course of the year. The Iranian navy is likely to continue harassing seaborne trade passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Peru’s presidency is up for grabs in what projects to be one of the most competitive elections in recent memory. The Global Risks Report 2021. China is America's strongest competitor, a state capitalist, authoritarian, and techno-surveillance regime that is … Eurasia Group’s annual forecast of the political risks that are most likely to play out over the course of the year. geopolitical tensions—will shape the effectiveness of our responses to the other key threats of the next decade: cyberattacks, weapons of mass destruction and, most notably, climate change. “There is no escaping that the pandemic will be the number one driver of risk around the world, short and long term,” says Hecker. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY. Long Covid and fragile global value chains. In the Americas, the Brazilian heads of the army, navy, and air force jointly announced their resignations in a move that will increase pressure on President Jair Bolsanaro. Geopolitical risk: US-China among flashpoints with highest probability of escalation 25 February 2021. Militants could carry out road ambushes and kidnappings targeting employees near mining sites in southern and western Mali in order to deter further foreign investment. As such, here are our predictions for the ten leading geopolitical risks facing the world in the year 2021: As we prepare to say good-bye to one of the worst years, at least for much of the world, in recent history, it is important not to lose sight of the fact that geopolitical risk levels have continued to trend upwards over the past decade or more and are now at truly dangerous levels as we enter 2021. Tehran-backed militias in Iraq are also expected to continue with rocket attacks on US assets and IED attacks on coalition convoys. For an optimal experience visit … We calculate the frequency of words that relate to geopolitical risk, adjust for positive and negative sentiment in the text of … Versus the euro, the rouble was steady at 90.23 EURRUBTN=MCX.. 07967865, PGI - Protection Group International, 13-14 Angel Gate, London, England, EC1V 2PT, - PCI DSS Consulting and Compliance Services, - Investigations and corporate intelligence, Cyber security and Intelligence careers at PGI. In the Global Risks Report 2021, we share the results of the latest Global Risks Perception Survey (GRPS), As we settle into 2021, PGI’s Geopolitical Intelligence team have put together a list of some of the key risks for the coming year. Diaz-Canel’s election suggests the influence of the reformist wing of the party is growing. Before we look at the ten leading geopolitical risk levels for the coming year, it is interesting to look back at what we believed would be the ten biggest geopolitical risks of 2020. There is a heightened risk of violent anti-government protests across Iraq in the year ahead. The ISA International Market Potential Calculator, « The Six Main Issues Confronting President-Elect Biden. 2021 will be a year of uneven vaccine rollouts and uneven recovery. Both groups have stepped up attacks in an effort to signal their superiority and influence throughout Mali and the wider Sahel region. Businesses risk a disorderly shakeout which can exclude large cohorts of workers and companies … Our aim is to help our clients navigate the complex and uncertain global, 24/7 digital world, enabling them to understand and manage their risk exposure and ensure operational resilience. Mass protests broke out in November 2020 after Congress impeached popular former president Martin Vizcarra on alleged corruption charges. The key discussion topics of the event will be: Lockdowns and other COVID-19-related restrictions will have a negative impact on global growth rates for at least the first half of 2021. Contact us to discuss how we can help: riskanalysis@pgitl.com, If you have any questions about our services or would like to learn more about our consultants here at PGI, please get in touch with us and speak with one of the team, call us on +44 (0)845 600 4403 or email us at sales@pgitl.com, +44 (0) 845 600 4403 PGI - Protection Group International, 13-14 Angel Gate, London, England, EC1V 2PT. The BlackRock Geopolitical Risk Indicator (BGRI) tracks the relative frequency of analyst reports and financial news stories associated with geopolitical risks. There is an increased risk of civil unrest due to the economic fallout of COVID-19. The threat posed by political violence in the Central African Republic (CAR) has increased in the wake of the presidential election in December 2020. A change in the country’s top leadership in April increases the potential for political and economic reforms in the year ahead. Country risk is an important consideration in building a diversified investment portfolio in capital, private or bond markets, as well as currency or … The pandemic will continue to cause severe economic disruption. Even though oil prices are expected to rise as worldwide lockdowns and travel bans are lifted, the economy is unlikely to recover in the near-term, meaning there is a high risk of election-related nationwide protests, particularly in Baghdad and the southern regions. In August, the group occupied Mocimboa da Praia, subsequently using the strategically important port town as a base from which to expand operations. The prime minister has faced rebellion from members of his coalition, resulting in the resignation of important ministers. Mass protests triggered by a rise in subway fares erupted in October 2019, but quickly developed into wider unrest over long-term socioeconomic grievances. “There is no escaping that the pandemic will be the number one driver of risk around the world, short and long term,” says Hecker. Negotiations could take several months and harm investor confidence. The series of unilateral actions will make it difficult for President Joe Biden to significantly change the downward trajectory of relations between China and the US. Discontent over the details of the ceasefire could allow opposition parties to reshape their image and mount a stronger threat to Pashinyan. The uptick in militant activity will continue to pose a threat to Mali’s extractive industry, particularly its gold mining sector. 2021 Geopolitical Risk: The year ahead. The administration of former US President Donald Trump has used sanctions, tariffs, and blacklists to target Beijing and its commercial interests. With economic and social tensions having soared as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic, the potential for conflict and unrest in many parts of the world has risen substantially, and any further dislocations that result from the pandemic will certainly add to these tensions in the months ahead. In November, militants then temporarily seized multiple settlements in Muidumbe district, executing at least 50 civilians in the area. North Korea has previously relied on weapons tests to garner international attention and force negotiations with major powers, particularly the US. North Korea’s relations with the US and South Korea have been strained due to a prolonged impasse in talks over Pyongyang’s missile and nuclear weapons programme. A coalition of six rebel groups loosely affiliated with former president Francois Bozizé threatened to march on the capital Bangui after Bozizé was barred from standing in the election. Quarterly Geopolitical Risk Forecast: Q1 2021. Militants have also significantly stepped up raids targeting islands off the coast of Cabo Delgado and, in November 2020, seized seven sailboats transporting food supplies from Pemba, demonstrating their growing maritime strategy and capabilities. For an optimal experience visit … Militants affiliated with the Islamic State (IS) group stepped up attacks in Cabo Delgado province in late 2020. Long Covid and fragile global value chains. Email me. Archishman is a second-year BA International Relations student. Top 10 op risks 2021: geopolitical risk Stimulus unwind, Covid nationalism and regime changes spell volatile operating environment Opposition parties lack widespread support because of their association with the unpopular former government of Serzh Sarkisian, which used lethal force to suppress dissent and was allegedly involved in the embezzlement of state funds. Despite Tehran’s desire to get rid of crippling US sanctions, any renegotiation is unlikely in 2021 due to Washington’s domestic priorities and Iranian presidential elections in June. The risk now is that a major Russian offensive against Ukraine splits the continent from the Anglo-American world. You are cordially invited to a webinar on Top 10 Geopolitical Risks in 2021: Looking Ahead. This 2-hour virtual event will discuss short and long-term political and geopolitical risks outlining how Covid-19 will exacerbate pre-existing domestic tensions in many countries, while accelerating the trend of deglobalisation and pushing the US and China towards a more confrontational path. These are the top geopolitical risks seen around the world, according to Eurasia Group.